Review of hantavirus infections in the world, epidemiological situation on hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in the Russian Federation in 2020 and a forecast for 2021

Abstract

The review used the data from operational monitoring carried out by the Reference Center for Monitoring over HFRS – “Kazan Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology of the Rospotrebnadzor”, based on official data provided by the Rospotrebnadzor institutions in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Statistical processing was conducted using conventional methods of variation statistics applying the Excel program. Over the past decades, hantavirus diseases have become very relevant and spread throughout the world. In the territory of the Russian Federation, natural foci of HFRS are located in the European part of the country, Western Siberia and Far East. The most epidemically active foci are situated in the European part of Russia. Over the past decade, the intensive incidence rate of HFRS in the Russian Federation stayed within the range of 3.0–9.5 per 100 thousand of the population, the long-term average annual indicator – 5.2 per 100 thousand of the population. In 2020, 3845 cases of HFRS were registered (2.62 per 100,000 of the population). There was a decrease in the incidence of HFRS by 3.6 times, compared with the indicators of 2019. A factor that may have influenced the decrease in the incidence of HFRS was the depression of the epizootic process among small mammals, the main carriers of HFRS pathogens, due to natural and climatic factors. The nature of the distribution of HFRS incidence across the territory of the Russian Federation in 2020 was heterogeneous. Statistical processing of the data made it possible to identify 5 groups of territories that differ in the level of HFRS incidence. Almost all constituent entities of the Volga Federal District and the Kostroma Region belonging to the Central Federal District were classified as groups of territories with high and very high incidence rates. In 2021, the deterioration of the epidemiological situation is predicted in the summer-autumn period of the year in the Volga Federal District and four entities of the Central Federal District.