FORECASTING THE EXCHANGE RATE IN RUSSIA USING THE BOX-JENKINS METHODOLOGY

Abstract

This study aims to find a standard model for forecasting the exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the US dollar, using the Box-Jenkins method, as the study relies on daily data issued by the Russian Central Bank from 10/01/2018 to 02/04/2020 using 756 views [1]. The study relied on a descriptive-analytical method. Using the Box-Jenkins methodology, which is based on a study on time series stationary and finding an appropriate model using an ARIMA model, we found that the suggested model for forecasting the exchange rate of the Russian ruble against the US dollar is ARIMA(0, 1, 2).