Mapping the Potential Distribution of Oak Wilt (Bretziella fagacearum) in East Central and Southeast Minnesota Using Maxent

Abstract

© 2019 Society of American Foresters. With the advancement of spatial analysis and remote sensing technology, potentially devastating forest pathogens can be managed through spatial modeling. This study used Maxent, a presence-only species-distribution model, to map the potential probability distribution of the invasive forest pathogen oak wilt (Bretziella fagacearum) in eastern and southeastern Minnesota. The model related oak wilt occurrence data to environmental variables including climate, topography, land cover, soil, and population density. Results showed that areas with the highest probability of oak wilt occur within and surrounding the Minneapolis/St. Paul metropolitan area. The jackknife test of variable importance indicated land cover and soil type as important variables contributing to the prediction of the distribution. Multiple methods of analysis showed that the model performed better than random at predicting the occurrence of oak wilt. This study shows Maxent's potential as an accurate tool in the early detection and management of forest diseases.