Analysis of efficiency of the innovative project in the field of chemistry fuzzy logic

Abstract

Chemical industry economy consists of criteria of its numerous sub-branches: petrochemical, agrochemical, organic and inorganic, polymer, pharmaceutical, elastomer and some others. Fine chemicals demand contraction in internal market, first of all on the part of high technology industry and defense complex. Present-day risk calculation and assessment include subjectivity and fundamental background factors which lead to mistakes in project risk assessment. Possibility theory is a new actively developing approach to risk assessment. Lately fuzzy modeling is one of the most active and promising applied research tendencies in the field of management and decision making. Investment project "New products of ternary anionic (co)polymerization of cyclic carbonates as polycarbonate analogues" risk is a probability of project future cash flow deviation from the expected cash flow driven by external (legislation, market response to produced goods, rivals activity) as well as internal factors (personnel competence, mistakes in project characteristics determination) which occur due to incomplete and asymmetrical information.