Mechanisms and methods of statistical analysis and accounting of the phase shifts at cyclic development of economy in the conditions of increased uncertainty of institutional and market environment

Abstract

© 2016, Serials Publications. All rights reserved.The purpose of the study is to develop scientific justification (verification), and the testing of the model of cyclical fluctuations, built on the basis of such factors that would have a high level of sensitivity to the changes in the external and internal environment of the economic system. In this study there is implemented a methodology based on the use of the factor approach, also in the course of the research there were used methods of statistical analysis and forecasting, in particular, taxonomic method. There has been developed the diagnostic algorithm for cyclical fluctuations, which allows us to identify upward and downward phase of the economic cycles regardless of their "entry" into a positive or negative zone of the emerging indices by advanced development on the basis of which it is possible to forecast the short-term period with the next 1-2 years from the current direction of the development in the national economy. The analysis results show that the short-term cycles in the Russian economy are somewhat different from the classic short Kitchin's cycles, the frequency of which happens 2-4 years.