The Use of Deterministic Mathematical Modeling for the Prediction of Dynamic Geophysical Processes

Abstract

Deterministic mathematical models allow predicting the studied dynamic processes for the future moments of time. There have been multiple attempts to construct such models but their predicting value appeared to be rather low. In our case, for the processing of observations of the Earth's pole dynamics, an approach of dynamic regression modeling (DRM) was used. The simulation of the Earth's pole's polar coordinates (EPPC) motion dynamics was performed using an automated software package for dynamic regression modeling (ASPDRM). This approach allows creating accurate hybrid observation models that to some extent describe the causal and deterministic relationship and allow performing the prediction. The observations and forecast values of EPPC dynamics produced by the DRM approach and other researchers are compared. To solve this task, the DRM system was expanded. New software modules for the developed technique and the features of geophysical observations were added to the basic version.