Long-term forecasts of heating period duration for the Volga Federal District

Abstract

The principal fundamentals of the forecast method for heating period duration are considered in this paper, taking into account the date of a stable autumn decrease of the mean daily air temperature through 8 C. The largest average forecast errors (up to - 9 ÷ 9.4 days) were observed in the northern and the northwestern parts of the Volga Federal District (VFD) - in the zone with the greatest spring variability of circulation and thermal regimes. Nevertheless, the main result of the work is that methodological forecasts proved to be much more effective than formal ones, which inspires certain confidence in the future prospects of their scientific and practical basis use.