Imitation modeling as a tool of analytical substantiation of sales policy

Abstract

© 2019, Research Trend. All rights reserved. In the scientific work, the authors proposed a methodical algorithm for the formation of the optimal composition of the commodity items in terms of risk management of changes in capital structure and obtaining the required performance of financial and economic activity of an economic entity by using simulation tools. The target indicator of economic evaluation of the simulation experiments was the preservation of company’s financial stability, taking into account possible scenarios of changes in market conditions that determine the effectiveness of its operating activity. The functional relationship between the result and factor indicators of the simulation model was established within the framework of the fundamental propositions of the Corporate finance’s theory. The basics of ABC-XYZ analysis and VAR tools became the separate components of the methodical algorithm for solving the problem. The need to integrate organization’s indicators of profitability and financial stability formed the basis of the author's justification of descriptive statistics’ indicators. The key indicators of the analytical interpretation of the results, which characterize the generated empirical data, were the share of experiments that demonstrated the possibility of maintaining the required financial strength, and the absolute value of profit before tax, obtained as a result of the mathematical expectation of profit in optimistic, probable and pessimistic scenarios.