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Revealing the determinants of wheat yields in the Siberian breadbasket of Russia with Bayesian networks

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dc.contributor.author Prishchepov A.
dc.contributor.author Ponkina E.
dc.contributor.author Sun Z.
dc.contributor.author Müller D.
dc.date.accessioned 2020-01-15T21:17:32Z
dc.date.available 2020-01-15T21:17:32Z
dc.date.issued 2019
dc.identifier.issn 0264-8377
dc.identifier.uri https://dspace.kpfu.ru/xmlui/handle/net/155558
dc.description.abstract © 2018 Higher crop yields are critical to satisfy the rising global food demand. Russia holds untapped potential for increasing agricultural production because current grain yields are often far below the potentially attainable yields. Western Siberia is an important breadbasket in Russia, where wheat yields fall particularly short of their potential. Our goal was to assess the determinants of yield variations among farmers in the province of Altai Krai in Western Siberia. We conducted 67 structured in-person interviews with corporate farm managers and individual farmers about the potential determinants of wheat yields and complemented these data with 149 additional observations obtained from the provincial agricultural extension service. We used Bayesian networks (BNs) to represent the relationships between the explanatory parameters and contemporary wheat yields and to examine qualitative future scenarios of future yields. The results revealed higher yields on larger farms than on medium and small farms. Our results corroborated that the application of fertilizers and herbicides and the implementation of new equipment had large positive impacts on the yields. The scenario of higher future production costs and lower precipitation resulted in a yield reduction from 7.6 dt/ha to 5.3. Overall, our results suggest that policies aimed at increasing wheat yields should concentrate on the education of farmers and encourage higher input applications, particularly for small-scale farms. Additionally, policies should address concurrent challenges, such as a higher drought frequency, through the application of new equipment, seed material and tillage practices.
dc.relation.ispartofseries Land Use Policy
dc.subject Bayesian belief network
dc.subject Food security
dc.subject Land-use intensity
dc.subject Russia
dc.subject Scenario analysis
dc.subject Wheat production
dc.subject Yield gap
dc.title Revealing the determinants of wheat yields in the Siberian breadbasket of Russia with Bayesian networks
dc.type Article
dc.relation.ispartofseries-volume 80
dc.collection Публикации сотрудников КФУ
dc.relation.startpage 21
dc.source.id SCOPUS02648377-2019-80-SID85054159611

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  • Публикации сотрудников КФУ Scopus [24551]
    Коллекция содержит публикации сотрудников Казанского федерального (до 2010 года Казанского государственного) университета, проиндексированные в БД Scopus, начиная с 1970г.

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