Predictive age-groups modeling in a long-term perspective

Abstract

© 2016 Taylor & Francis Group, London.In the current period, the demographic development of the Republic of Tatarstan is a very topical problem in calculating the rate of population growth, forecasting its size, and composition. Currently, the number of people planning specific age groups in the preparation of the federal and regional budgets is based on data analysis of state statistical reports on the number and mortality. However, the method of advancing age in our opinion is more accurate, allowing arguments to plan and predict future demographic situation. In this paper, this method is used to predict the number of pensioners in the Republic of Tatarstan.