World population estimates and projections: Data and methods

Abstract

In work results of the carried-out demographic forecasting as in general for the world and by certain parts of the world (Africa, South America, North America, Asia, Europe) are provided. It allowed to carry out at the same time the analysis of the population growth dynamics by groups of the countries "North" - "South". The analysis of the world population dynamics and certain parts of the world during 1950 - 2010 allowed to carry out the forecast of the world population and certain parts of the world before 2050. In work methods of regression and correlation analysis were applied. The received results in case of the various options choice like the approximating functions differ in the high level of the actual compliance and calculated values, i.e. insignificant errors of approximation,in case of high significance value of results (p>0.05). In the course of forecasting it was revealed that in the first half of the 21st century population growth will continue. This growth will be extremely uneven both on continents, and over groups of the countries. As a result of globalization processes the stage of demographic transition will be entered by all countries of the world (though differentiation in this plan will be very essential). In the second half of the century the period of demographic stabilization at the planetary level will begin.