Methodological approaches to forecasting the mid-term cycles of economic systems with the predominant type of administrative-command control

Abstract

The publication was prepared within the framework of a research project NQ 15-32- 01353supported by the Russian Humanitarian Science Foundation. As part of studying the theory of cyclical economic development, a macroeconomic forecasting of generations on the basis of knowledge of the nature and logic of the phase shifts within generating economic cycles is of considerable interest. The vast majority of worksis focused on the fact that the nature and dynamics of the cyclical development in the past will determine the nature and dynamics of the cyclical development in the future. However, in our opinion, this approach generates a lot ofcontroversial questions, especially in the context of the study of the administrative and command economical systems.lt should be clearly understood that the cyclical development cannot be described as a regularly flowing phenomenon in a time, quite the opposite, irregular shifts of economic cycle phases is a natural process. Thus, definition of the probability for occurrence of these phases and their duration has a complex function with many uncertain variables. An assumption made determines the feasibility of the thesis on that the use of traditional methods of forecasting cyclical development of the economy may lead to a decrease in the quality of predictive models which are based on the extrapolation method using forecast scenarios for development of market and institutional factors which are drivers of the phase changes ofa cycle.In this connection, there is a need for the development, scientific evidence (verification), and testing acyclical fluctuations model built on the basis of factors which would have a high level of sensitivity to changes in the external and internal environment of the economic system and reflect the predictive models of economic agents' management.