Methodological anticipation approaches for economy cyclic development phase shifts

Abstract

Great interest, within studying the theory of economy cyclic development, represents forecasting of macroeconomic generation on the basis of knowledge of the phase shifts nature and logic in the generated economic cycles. The widespread approaches based on the fact that nature and dynamics of cyclic development in the past determines nature and dynamics of cyclic development in the future in our opinion raise a number of debatable questions. Attempts to develop the considered prognostic models bear in themselves the whole set of risks connected with the prediction accuracy and anticipation of cyclic fluctuations. With respect thereto there is a need of development, scientific reasons (verification) and approbation of economic cycles models constructed on the basis of such factors which would have the high level of sensitivity to changes in external and internal environment of economic system and would not entirely rely on the previous periods trends.