Modified index method in scenarios of regional socio-economic development

Abstract

The paper proposes research approach to analysis of regional socioeconomic system development. The system of estimated parameters of regional socioeconomic system state in the context of municipalities and local government entities is substantiated. It allows determining the optimal variant of regional system development and the level of municipalities' economic development based on medium term (5 - 10 years) scenarios. The authors have elaborated modified index method for forecasting the regional socio - economic system state based on analysis of a degree of change of socio-economic development parameters, depending on the scenario option. The paper shows the mechanism of the proposed method usage and the results of the individual expert judgments colligation. The prospects of raising the level of socio - economic development of the Republic of Tatarstan municipalities are determined. By prioritizing, basic (needed for implementation of any scenario) and special (requiring urgent actions for each of the scenarios) directions of region development are offered. The directions of development are considered from the standpoint of the four types of territorial differentiation of socio-economic development of the region ("North-South", "East-West", "center-periphery", and «mono - multiethnic regions). Major trends of probable variations in intraregional disparities in socio-economic development of the Republic of Tatarstan are related to strengthening the role of semi-periphery in the regional development and reduction of differentiation of socio-economic development level between the central and peripheral zones, as well as to the ongoing regional spatial polarization of the Republic.