Theoretical and methodological premises of geomorphological forecasting

Abstract

There are a number of yet-unsolved problems with regard to geomorphological prognosis. The theoretical and methodological foundations of geomorphic prediction are outlined. It is shown that there is a conceptual link between field studies of spatial structures and landscape evolution and delimiting trajectories of geomorphic systems. Several basic issues in applying this principle to forecasting are discussed. These include the role of characteristic and relaxation times of geomorphic systems and the concept of "geomorphological memory", complex responses, and the relative role of conceptual and statistical models. It is suggested that instability in geomorphic systems can be a source of order at higher heirarchical levels, and that this property can be exploited in practical forecasting. © 1992.