Management of Transport and Logistics System Based on Predictive Cognitive and Fuzzy Models

Abstract

The article offers an approach to solving particular controlling problems that arise in the management of cargo transportation. The proposed approach makes it possible to predict the possibility of emergency situations during transportation and the duration of cargo transportation, on the basis of which the optimal route can be selected. To predict the occurrence of accidents, vehicle failures, and driver errors, a fuzzy cognitive model is constructed that allows taking into account a large number of heterogeneous factors. The forecast model for estimating the duration of transportation is based on the results of a survey of experts, and fuzzy logic is used to formalize expert estimates. A fuzzy hierarchical model is used to reduce the number of fuzzy products. The article also provides a methodological example showing the results of applying the cognitive approach to specific data.