Methodological specifics of forecasting the development of the industrial sector of a region’s economy factoring in the impact of shock “impulses” on it (Through the example of the republic of Tatarstan)

Abstract

© 2015 Canadian Center of Science and Education. All rights reserved. Present-day economic conditions are characterized by a high level of integration and interpenetration between national economic systems. This, in turn, determines the way economic relations that form as a result of the impact of not just internal but external “impulses” on them are to be coordinated and will be operating. The latter are formed, for instance, as a result of overcoming trade barriers in interstate relations or, on the contrary, as a result of restrictions imposed in relation to access to external resources and markets. There are two aspects that impart particular relevance to the processes of generating external impulses. Firstly, Russia’s entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2012 determined a whole spectrum of dimensions for the development and transformation of trade-economic processes (garnering better, compared with existing, and non-discriminatory conditions for the access of Russian products to foreign markets; creating a more favorable climate for foreign investment as a result of bringing the legislative system in line with WTO norms, etc.) (Gafurov, Safiullin, & Safiullin, 2012). Secondly, tensions building over the last several months between the Russian Federation and a particular segment of the global community are generating a number of serious risks associated with a set of institutional and market restrictions, which are directly or indirectly affecting the development of the industrial and financial sectors of the national and, consequently, regional economic systems.